THE ECONOMIC GAINS OF TRADING STOCKS AROUND HOLIDAYS

I assess the economic gains of strategies that account for the effect of holiday calendar effects on the daily returns and volatility of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. The dynamic strategies use forecasts from stochastic volatility models that distinguish between regular trading days and different types of holidays. More important, I assess the economic value of conditioning on holiday effects and find that a risk-averse investor will pay a high performance fee to switch from a dynamic portfolio strategy that does not account for the effect of holidays on daily conditional expected returns and volatility to a strategy that does. This result is robust to reasonable transaction costs.     

Overnight information and stochastic volatility: A study of European and US stock exchanges

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the predictive ability of information accumulated during nontrading hours for a set of European and US stock indexes. We introduce a stochastic volatility model, which conditions on lagged overnight information, distinguishes between the nontrading periods of weeknights, weekends, holidays and long weekends, and allows for an asymmetric leverage effect on the impact of overnight news. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of the empirical models, and find two key results: (i) there is substantial predictive ability in financial information accumulated during nontrading hours; and (ii) the performance of stochastic volatility models improves considerably by separating the asymmetric impact of positive and negative news made available over weeknights, weekends, holidays and long weekends.     

Modelling multiple term structures of defaultable bonds with common and idiosyncratic state variables

In this paper we develop a multi-factor “reduced-form” model that is general enough to capture simultaneously the dynamics of multiple term structures of corporate bonds, each with a different credit rating. In this way, we are able to fully incorporate a number of “stylised facts”, reported on a number of previous empirical studies. More specifically, we are able to estimate the different degrees of covariation between the term structure of each credit rating and the default-free yield curve. Furthermore, we report the differing sensitivities of the credit curves to a number of observable macro-factors that reflect changes in credit conditions, both domestic and international. Finally, the dependence of each credit curve on a number of idiosyncratic state-variables is also documented. Our results are based on two special cases of the model, estimated using US and UK corporate bond data.     

A novel risk management framework for natural gas markets

This paper examines dynamic hedges in the natural gas futures markets for different horizons and explores the gains from devising risk management strategies. Despite the substantial progress made in developing hedging models, forecast combinations have not been explored. We fill this gap by proposing a framework for combining hedge-ratio predictions. Composite hedge ratios lead to significant reduction in portfolio risk, whether spot prices are partially predictable or not. We offer insights on hedging effectiveness across seasons, backwardation-contango conditions and the asymmetric profiles of long-short hedgers. We conclude that forecast combinations better reconcile realized performance with the hedging process, mitigating model instability.     

Reverse logistics capabilities and firm performance: the mediating role of business strategy

This study aims to examine the impact of reverse logistics capabilities on firm performance and mediating role of logistics strategies. We reviewed three theories of reverse logistics capabilities: (a) resource-based view of the firm, (b) transaction cost economics, and (c) institutional theory. We examined six reverse logistics capabilities: logistics information management, close-loop capability, supply chain integration, supply chain coordination, conformity capability, and institutional incentives. We examined three reverse logistics strategies: joint reverse logistics, manufacturer reverse logistics, and third-party reverse logistics. We conducted a survey of Chinese mobile phone companies out of which we received 125 usable questionnaires with a response rate of 80%. The results of mediated hierarchical regression support the hypothesis that reverse logistics capabilities influence firm performance. Institutional factors were more significant than supply chain factors. Close-loop capability was the most significant factor. We provide managerial implications and suggestions for future research.     

Testing for a unit root under the alternative hypothesis of ARIMA (0, 2, 1)

Showing a dual relationship between ARIMA (0,?2,?1) with parameter θ?=??1 and the random walk, a new alternative hypothesis in the form of ARIMA (0,?2,?1) is established in this article for evaluating unit root tests. The power of four methods of testing for a unit root is investigated under the new alternative, using Monte Carlo simulations. The first method testing θ?=??1 in second differences and using a new set of critical values suggested by the two authors in finite samples, is the most appropriate from the integration order point of view. The other three methods refer to tests based on t and?φ?statistics introduced by Dickey and Fuller, as well as, the nonparametric Phillips–Perron test. Additionally, for cases where for the first method a low power is met, we studied the validity of prediction interval for a future value of ARIMA (0,?2,?1) with θ close but greater of ?1, using the prediction equation and the error variance of the random walk. Keeping the forecasting horizon short, the coverage of the interval ranged at expected levels, but its average half-length ranged up to four times more than its true value.     

Hedging effectiveness of the Athens stock index futures contracts

This paper examines the hedging effectiveness of the FTSE/ATHEX-20 and FTSE/ATHEX Mid-40 stock index futures contracts in the relatively new and fairly unresearched futures market of Greece. Both in-sample and out-of-sample hedging performances using weekly and daily data are examined, considering both constant and time-varying hedge ratios. Results indicate that time-varying hedging strategies provide incremental risk-reduction benefits in-sample, but under-perform simple constant hedging strategies out-of-sample. Moreover, futures contracts serve effectively their risk management role and compare favourably with results in other international stock index futures markets. Estimation of investor utility functions and corresponding optimal utility maximising hedge ratios yields similar results, in terms of model selection. For the FTSE/ATHEX Mid-40 contracts we identify the existence of speculative components, which lead to utility-maximising hedge ratios, that are different to the minimum variance hedge ratio solutions.     

A Framework of Best Practice of Continuing Professional Development for the Accounting Profession

Abstract

The International Accounting Education Standards Board (IAESB) places a strong emphasis on individual professionals taking responsibility for their Continuing Professional Development (CPD). On the other hand, the roles performed by professional accountants have evolved out of practical necessity to ‘best’ suit the diverse needs of business in a global economy. This diversity has meant that professional accountants are seen in highly specialised roles requiring diverse skill sets. In order to enhance the contribution of the accountant as a knowledge professional for business, it follows that CPD that leverages off an individual's experience should be designed to meet the needs of professionals across the different specialised roles within the profession. In doing so the project identifies how CPD should differ across roles and levels of organisational responsibility for accounting professionals. The study also makes a number of policy recommendations to IAESB and IFAC.     

Challenges facing European labour markets: Is a skill upgrade the appropriate instrument?

The financial and economic crisis shattered the Lisbon Strategy’s attempt to increase the EU’s employment rate to 70% among 15–64 year olds by 2010. The new Europe 2020 strategy envisages a 75% adult employment rate by 2020; however, this goal also seems unrealistic in light of the economic crisis which has caused the EU’s employment rate to drop significantly below 70%. A crucial question now is whether a skill upgrade of the European labour force would help to increase the employment rate, especially among youth. This Forum explores the relationship between education and employment throughout the EU.     

Periodic Stochastic Volatility and Fat Tails

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the size andstatistical significance of the day of the week, month of theyear, and holiday effects in daily stock index returns and volatility.We employ data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA),the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the S&P SmallCap600 in order to test whether the seasonal patterns of mediumand small firms are similar to those of large firms. Using formalhypothesis tests based on bootstrapping, we demonstrate thatthere are more significant calendar effects in volatility thanin expected returns, especially for the two large cap indices.More importantly, we introduce the periodic stochastic volatility(PSV) model for characterizing the observed seasonal patternsof daily financial market volatility. We analyze the interactionbetween seasonal heteroskedasticity and fat tails by comparingthe performance of Gaussian PSV and fat-tailed PSVt specificationsto the plain vanilla SV and SVt benchmarks. Consistent withour model-free results, we find strong evidence of seasonalperiodicity in volatility, which essentially eliminates theneed for a fat-tailed conditional distribution, and is robustto the exclusion of the crash of 1987 outliers.